{"id":1364,"date":"2023-12-26T14:23:20","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T11:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/27.preview.freshtone.ru\/largest-asset-manager-in-europe-bets-on-gbpusd-decline\/"},"modified":"2023-12-26T14:23:20","modified_gmt":"2023-12-26T11:23:20","slug":"largest-asset-manager-in-europe-bets-on-gbpusd-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/27-preview.freshtone.ru\/en\/largest-asset-manager-in-europe-bets-on-gbpusd-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Largest asset manager in Europe bets on GBPUSD decline"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Over the last week, the <a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/symbol\/gbpusd\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>GBPUSD currency pair<\/strong><\/a> has slightly retreated from the 4-month highs set just below the <strong>1.28<\/strong> level. In general, the medium-term trend for the pound&#8217;s strengthening against the dollar remains, but the pace of the quotes&#8217; rise has significantly slowed down by now. There are long shadows of candlesticks above the <strong>1.275<\/strong> level on the daily chart, which is a signal of mass profit-taking and shifting to short positions. Not only private traders, but also large institutional investors act in this way.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Federico Cesarini from Amundi Investment Institute, the research department of Europe&#8217;s largest asset manager, reported a negative outlook for the pound. According to his forecast, the exchange rate of the British currency against the dollar will drop by 4% to the<strong> 1.21<\/strong> level by the end of March 2024. At the same time, the average market expectations are reduced to the <strong>1.25<\/strong> level, which is also lower than the current GBPUSD quotes.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>According to Cesarini, <a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/indicator\/uk-gdp-qoq\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>the current negative dynamics of UK GDP is far from the worst<\/strong><\/a>. In his view, the strong pressure of high interest rates on the UK economy will also cause an active decline in inflation. <a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/indicator\/uk-boe-interest-rate-decision\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>As a result, normalized price growth could allow the Bank of England to ease monetary policy in May<\/strong><\/a>. In earlier forecasts, it was expected in August.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Amundi analysts expect a technical recession in the UK by the end of Q4 2023. In their opinion, the current GBPUSD rate does not include a high probability of economic crisis. In this regard, Amundi believes it is reasonable to open short positions on GBPUSD. According to analysts&#8217; estimates, some recovery of the British currency can be expected only by mid-2024.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>In case of GBPUSD growth to <strong>1.275<\/strong>, opening short positions looks interesting. The level of <strong>1.264<\/strong> may serve as a short-term target for the bears. This scenario will no longer be relevant if the price consolidates above <strong>1.28<\/strong>.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Consider the following trading strategy:<\/p><p><br><\/p><p><strong>Sell GBPUSD in the range of 1.27\u20131.275. Take profit \u2014 1.264. Stop loss \u2014 1.28.<\/strong><\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Traders may also use a <strong>Trailing stop<\/strong> instead of a fixed <strong>Stop loss<\/strong> at their discretion<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Market analysis by financial analysts and experienced traders. Forecast for GBPUSD.","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-en"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"2.12.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["ru","en"],"languages":{"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Largest asset manager in Europe bets on GBPUSD decline - SSC<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Largest asset manager in Europe bets on GBPUSD decline - 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