{"id":2152,"date":"2024-03-13T14:26:50","date_gmt":"2024-03-13T11:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/27.preview.freshtone.ru\/divergence-between-fed-and-ecb-policy-will-weigh-on-eurusd\/"},"modified":"2024-03-13T14:26:50","modified_gmt":"2024-03-13T11:26:50","slug":"divergence-between-fed-and-ecb-policy-will-weigh-on-eurusd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/27-preview.freshtone.ru\/en\/divergence-between-fed-and-ecb-policy-will-weigh-on-eurusd\/","title":{"rendered":"Divergence between Fed and ECB policy will weigh on EURUSD"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/symbol\/eurusd\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>The EURUSD currency pair<\/strong><\/a><strong> <\/strong>keeps pulling back from the 2-month high of <strong>1.098<\/strong> set on Friday. It seems that the bulls will have to wait for the next wave of the euro strengthening against the dollar to reach the critical level of <strong>1.1<\/strong>. The EURUSD correction will not necessarily be large-scale, but the sellers can expect at least a movement towards <strong>1.088<\/strong>. Both the fundamental background and the technical picture are in favor of this scenario.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Yesterday&#8217;s US inflation data for February again indicated slow progress in stabilizing the price growth. The core index fell by only 0.1% to 3.8%, while headline inflation even accelerated from 3.1% to 3.2%. <a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/indicator\/de-german-cpi-yoy\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>At the same time, the situation in Europe is improving much faster<\/strong><\/a>. Thus, German statistics showed a slowdown in inflation from 2.9% to 2.5%. This increases the likelihood of a divergence between the Fed and ECB policy.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>According to Erik Nielsen, an economist at Unicredit, the European regulator should not be concerned about lowering interest rates<strong>, <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/indicator\/us-fed-interest-rate-decision\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>even if the US central bank will be hesitant to ease its monetary policy<\/strong><\/a>. Nielsen notes that the US labor market, with strong wage growth and plenty of fiscal support, requires interest rates to remain high. The EU, on the other hand, can conduct a more flexible policy. According to Nielsen&#8217;s estimates, a potential drop in the euro-dollar exchange rate due to ECB rate cuts will not lead to a significant rise in inflation.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/indicator\/emu-ecb-interest-rate-decision\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Pierre Wunsch, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, also supports this view<\/strong><\/a>. He encourages other ECB officials to ease monetary policy before inflation gets to the 2% target. According to Wunsch, the price growth rate will continue to slow and all the risks are under control.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>The <strong>RSI<\/strong>, turning down from the overbought zone, confirms a signal to sell EURUSD. The nearest short-term target for the bears is the level of <strong>1.088<\/strong>.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Consider the following trading strategy:<\/p><p><br><\/p><p><strong>Sell EURUSD in the range of 1.091\u20131.093. Take profit \u2013 1.088. Stop loss \u2013 1.096.<\/strong><\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Traders may also use a <strong>Trailing stop<\/strong> instead of a fixed <strong>Stop loss<\/strong> at their discretion<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Market analysis by financial analysts and experienced traders. 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