In anticipation of Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before Congress today and tomorrow, investors are betting that negative jobs data will significantly increase the probability of a September rate cut to around 80%.<\/p>
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The market is pricing in a high probability that Thursday’s CPI will confirm that disinflation is back on track.<\/p>
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Looking at the US economy, most of the data is softening. Friday’s employment data was weak, while unemployment is trending higher. Most leading labor market indicators are slowing.<\/p>
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The main economic event this week will be the US consumer prices report, where headline inflation is expected to slow to 3.1% in June from 3.3% in May, and core inflation is expected to remain at 3.4%.<\/p>
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For the rest of 2024, markets have fully priced in a total of 50 basis points of easing, equivalent to two rate cuts. Such a scenario weakens the US dollar, particularly against the euro.<\/p>
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As for the European currency, it is holding its ground after Monday’s sharp swings due to the suspension of the results of the French parliamentary elections, which points to a possible political stalemate, but removes many of the fiscal risks that would result from a victory by the far right or far left.<\/p>
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Summing up the current situation, EURUSD is set for further strengthening. From a technical point of view, the pair is slightly overbought, and after the corrective pullback to the 1.0800 level, it is possible to consider buying again.<\/p>
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The final recommendation<\/strong> is to buy EURUSD after the correction starting from the level of 1.0800.<\/p> \u00a0<\/p> Take profit at the level of 1.0850. A stop loss could be set at 1.0770.<\/p> \u00a0<\/p> The size of the possible loss should not exceed 2% of your deposit funds.<\/p> \u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Market analysis by financial analysts and experienced traders. Forecast for EURUSD.","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3661,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-en"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"2.12.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["ru","en"],"languages":{"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"yoast_head":"\r\n